Resultados da Força-Tarefa para Mobilização Global contra a Mudança do Clima do G20

The G20 Taskforce on a Global Mobilization against Climate Change
G20’s Enhanced Ambition Agenda
Pursuing efforts to keep 1.5 °C within reach in the context of the Paris Agreement Outcome Document

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Outcome Document

Introduction

The convening of the Task Force on a Global Mobilization against Climate Change (TF- CLIMA) under Brazil’s G20 Presidency in 2024, bringing the Sherpa and the Finance tracks together for the first time around this agenda, provided a timely opportunity to discuss, develop and suggest a non-binding, forward-looking agenda that aims to help the G20 cooperate and demonstrate ambition in climate action, in a way that complements the multilateral process, advances its implementation and respects different national circumstances and capacities. 

2. Enhanced cooperation can significantly contribute to the effective implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement. Leveraging its collective influence, the G20 can pave the way for a reshaping of economic policy and financial strategies to tackle the climate crisis and set the path to fully achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including the eradication of poverty and hunger. We need continued commitment to the full and effective implementation of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, as multilateralism is the way to address climate change.

3. The climate crisis allows for no more delays. The G20 can foster holistic and ambitious action that allows for effective implementation of national priorities that prioritizes the integration of climate, economic and financial plans, in line with national circumstances. We need immediate, firm and decisive steps to support the implementation of current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and enhance necessary actions on adaptation and just transitions.

4. This document summarizes key conclusions of TF-CLIMA, capturing the main themes, insights, and areas of convergence raised by participants. It provides a set of recommendations that could guide bold action and structural change during this critical decade and beyond, as applicable and in line with different national circumstances, approaches and pathways. It does not establish obligations on G20 Members, nor does it aim to interfere with ongoing negotiations in other fora.

5. We thank all those who have contributed to TF-CLIMA’s work and outcomes. These outcomes are dedicated to the memory of diplomat Daniel Machado da Fonseca (1979-2024), who was essential to the conception and launching of TF-CLIMA. The First Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement (GST-1) noted with alarm and serious concern the following findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC):

What does the IPCC tell us?

6. The First Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement (GST-1) noted with alarm and serious concern the following findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC):

(a)    That human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming of about 1.1 °C;
(b)    That human-caused climate change impacts are already being felt in every region across the globe, with those who have contributed the least to climate change being most vulnerable to the impacts, and, together with losses and damages, will increase with every increment of warming;
(c)    That most observed adaptation responses are fragmented, incremental, sector- specific and unequally distributed across regions, and that, despite the progress made, significant adaptation gaps still exist across sectors and regions and will continue to grow under current levels of implementation;

 7. In addition, GST-1 also noted the following findings of AR6:

(d)    That mitigation efforts embedded within the wider development context can increase the pace, depth and breadth of emissions reductions, as well as that policies that shift development pathways towards sustainability can broaden the portfolio of available mitigation responses and enable the pursuit of synergies with development objectives;

(e)    That both adaptation and mitigation financing would need to increase manyfold, and that there is sufficient global capital to close the global investment gap but there are barriers to redirecting capital to climate action, and that Governments through public funding and clear signals to investors are key in reducing these barriers and investors, central banks and financial regulators can also play their part;

(f)     That feasible, effective and low-cost mitigation options are already available in all sectors to keep 1.5 °C within reach in this critical decade with the necessary cooperation on technologies and support;

8. GST-1 noted with concern the finding or the AR6 that policies implemented by the end of 2020 are projected to result in higher global greenhouse gas emissions than those implied by the nationally determined contributions, indicating an implementation gap. AR6 also recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions beginning this decade to achieve a 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

Where are we?

9. Significant collective progress towards the Paris Agreement temperature goal has been made. All parties have communicated NDCs that demonstrate progress towards said goal, most of which provided the information necessary to facilitate their clarity, transparency and understanding. As a result, we have moved from an expected global temperature increase of 4 °C according to some projections prior to the adoption of the Agreement to an increase in the range of 2.1–2.8 °C with the full implementation of the latest NDCs. 87 per cent of the global economy in terms of share of gross domestic product is covered by targets for climate neutrality, carbon neutrality, greenhouse gas neutrality or net zero emissions, which provides the possibility of achieving a temperature increase below 2 °C when taking into account the full implementation of those strategies.

10. AR6 concludes, based on global modelled pathways and assumptions, that global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to peak between 2020 and at the latest before 2025 in global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot and in those that limit warming to 2 °C. This does not imply peaking in all countries within this time frame, and time frames for peaking may be shaped by sustainable development, poverty eradication needs and equity and be in line with different national circumstances and that technology development and transfer on voluntary and mutually agreed terms, as well as capacity-building and financing, can support countries in this regard.

11. GST-1 made it clear that, despite global efforts and overall progress on addressing climate change, we are not yet on the path needed to achieve the goals of Paris Agreement, neither in mitigation and adaptation actions, nor on means of implementation and support, including mobilizing finance for developing countries, nor on making financial flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHG emissions and climate-resilient development. The 2023 UNFCCC’s synthesis report on NDCs indicates that greenhouse gas emission levels in 2030 are projected to be 5.3 per cent lower than in 2019 if all NDCs, including all conditional elements, are fully implemented. It also highlights that enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building are needed to achieve this.

12. The UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement keep playing an essential and fundamental role in addressing climate change. At COP28, Parties to the Paris Agreement united around an effort to comprehensively keep the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach, including the 1.5oC goal.

13. The GST-1 decision also recognizes the role of the private sector in climate finance and highlights the need to strengthen policy guidance, incentives, regulations and enabling conditions to reach the scale of investments required to achieve a transition towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development and encourages countries to continue enhancing their enabling environments.

14. In the New Delhi Declaration, G20 Leaders noted the finding that USD 5.8-5.9 trillion in developing countries are needed in the pre-2030 period, in particular for implementing their NDCs, as well as the need of USD 4 trillion per year for clean energy technologies by 2030 to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

15. In most international assessments, achieving the Paris Agreement is possible. The IEA’s assessment, for example, indicates that global efforts outlined within the GST-1 are ambitious but achievable (mindful that countries were called to contribute to the global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches). The IEA has demonstrated that rapid progress has been made on clean energy technologies, speeding up the global clean transition and noted that meeting the goals put forward in the Paris Agreement will require both scaling up of clean energy and accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power. The benefits of implementing these goals extend beyond emissions reductions to also include economic, health and societal gains by fostering new clean energy industries, green jobs, cleaner air, and greater access to affordable clean energy, contributing to achieving our Sustainable Development Goals (SDG7, SDG10).

16. The World Bank’s Independent Evaluation Group estimates that nearly $200 billion flowed out of developing countries to private creditors from developed countries in 2023, which is a broader reflection of the constraining impact capital outflows have on the ability of developing countries to address issues such as climate changeⁱ. Market fluctuations, tight financial conditions and debt vulnerabilities, among others, could be adding near-term pressure on strained public budgets amid increasing financing costs. This trend, which outpaces increasing finance from the international financial institutions and bilateral donor agencies, has been exacerbated by the COVID19 pandemic and recent economic shocks, which have put severe pressure on the fiscal space across all jurisdictions, but particularly in developing countries.

17. Several ongoing initiatives¹ are trying to respond to the challenge of scaling-up financing to developing countries to address climate and sustainable development priorities, such as the Bridgetown Initiative, the Paris Pact for People and the Planet (4P), the African Climate Summit, the Middle East Green Initiative, the COP28 UAE Leader’s Declaration on a Global Climate Finance Framework, the Finance in Common, the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action and the Independent Expert Groups’ Triple Agenda reports, amongst many others.

TF-CLIMA Conclusions
 

Part I – Resetting Action: Advancing Credible, Robust, and Just National Transition Planning and Country Platforms²

18. Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement remain the main vehicle to communicate countries’ individual contribution to the global fight against climate change. Each country is entitled to choose its own path for implementation, recognizing that strong and effective transition planning is needed in all countries. The next round of NDCs represents an opportunity for the G20 to demonstrate collective ambition to keep the 1.5oC goal within reach in the context of the Paris Agreement and its temperature goal.

19. Actions aligned with the goal of keeping 1.5C within reach, in the context of the Paris Agreement and its temperature goal and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, require a transformation of development partnerships that encourages a rapid shift towards whole-of-economy national planning approaches to finance and investment. As appropriate and in light of different national circumstances and priorities, country platforms can be a useful instrument to accelerate climate action and attract support for sustainable development at a rapid pace during this critical decade, as well as improve the coherence, complementarity and effectiveness of support and investment from a broader range of mechanisms.

20. In 2020, the G20 endorsed the Reference Framework for Effective Country Platforms and requested a follow-up on its implementation as appropriate. According to the 2020 Framework, country platforms should be voluntary and country-driven; based on a shared strategic vision and principles and strong government ownership; flexible, with no one-size-fits-all; a tool to support sustainable development; in line with country’s reform and development priorities; customized and adapted to local contexts and country needs, specificities, priorities and legislation; cognizant of lessons from experience; conducive to private sector investment.

21. The following recommendations on national transition planning and country platforms, which resulted from discussions under TF-CLIMA, are voluntary and do not establish obligations on G20 Members, nor do they aim to interfere with ongoing negotiations in other fora. The decision to engage in transition planning and/or country platforms is country-owned, country-led and voluntary. National transition planning and country platforms are one of the many approaches countries may choose in their own pathway to climate action based on their national circumstances.

Section I: Advancing National Transition Planning³

22. The global climate crisis demands immediate and transformative action across all sectors of the economy. For some countries, transition planning can provide a structured, country-owned, approach for countries to maximize synergies between their development priorities and the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. These plans can ensure that all segments of society benefit from just transitions to a sustainable, low- GHG emission economy. They can also foster a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach.

23. National transition planning is part of – not tangential to – a country’s strategy for growth. National transition planning can promote low-GHG-emission and climate- resilient development fully in line with NDCs, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS). Transition planning, whether national or sectoral, can support high political, societal, and economic ambition, fostering coordinated climate action that addresses nationally determined specific needs. While reflecting country-specific characteristics, as well as commitments under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, they can set clear, ambitious, viable, and time-bound targets for achieving NDC objectives, prioritizing sectors and thematic areas for transition during NDC cycles and aligning with national sustainable development and poverty eradication priorities. Transition planning can help identify coherent, effective and efficient climate policies covering all sectors so that investors can take advantage of investment opportunities.

24. Collaboration among relevant levels of government, regulators, financial institutions, the private sector and civil society is essential in the development and implementation of transition planning. Developing regulatory and economic policies tailored to national and local needs, including finance requirements, is critical for the success of planning activities. Pathways outlined are to be based on thorough technical analysis, sound data, and science-based targets. Strong institutional arrangements and a clear roadmap should back these policies, ensuring adaptability to technological advancements, price changes and potential adverse effects. Comprehensive stakeholder engagement strategies and robust monitoring and evaluation systems, in line with national circumstances, are crucial for tracking progress and ensuring transparency. International cooperation, including finance, technology transfer and development and capacity building, are crucial enablers for the long-term success of transition planning.

25. From a social and economic perspective, national and sectoral transition planning can embed climate action into broader sustainable development strategies to achieve the SDGs under the Agenda 2030, leaving no one and no country behind. This includes prioritizing the reduction of poverty and inequality and consulting, and designing targeted measures to support relevant actors, including, as appropriate, Indigenous People, local authorities, communities, workers, youth, women, trade unions and other groups, to promote social dialogue and address needs. Planning outcomes can strengthen social infrastructure, such as education, health and social safety nets as well as encourage the development of local innovation and entrepreneurship capabilities, create jobs and develop skills while driving local value, technology, capacity, and income, and reducing inequalities. They can also promote new models of value-added industrialization that support sustainable and equitable economic diversification. These plans can also strive to minimize negative spillover effects in third countries.

26 .Attracting resources from public and private, domestic and international sources, including through the UNFCCC financial mechanism, is essential. National and sectoral transition planning and related investment plans can support the building of a pipeline of commercially bankable projects by identifying priority investments in key sectors, outlining relevant policy measures to incentivize those investments, delivering project preparation financing and engaging the private sector to assess needs and risks and lower barriers to investment. It is also necessary to identify sources of financing and needs for subsidies, concessional finance, grants, and technical assistance, as well as where policy frameworks could attract private financing. Transition planning can incorporate consideration to help ensure policies towards strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth and ensuring long-term financial sustainability, including through carbon pricing and non-pricing approaches, are critical. Transparency in finance flows is imperative. Some jurisdictions may wish to pursue the development of taxonomies to facilitate the flow of sustainable and/or transitional finance and credible and interoperable sustainable finance frameworks and policies, amongst other measures.

Section II: Developing and Implementing Country Platforms⁴

27. Country platforms can be a powerful instrument, among others, to achieve the objectives set in NDCs, NAPs, LT-LEDS and national and sectoral transition planning. They are one of the many measures that a country may adopt, as appropriate to different national circumstances, approaches and pathways. Where country platforms exist, they are voluntary, country-led and country-driven mechanisms designed to align with a country’s relevant reform and development priorities and communicate and coordinate with and amongst potential national and international official entities and investors. These platforms emphasize strong government ownership, mitigation and adaptation ambition, flexibility, and adaptation to local contexts, needs, and specificities. They serve as tools to support better integration of climate and economic plans to finance sources, wherever relevant. Furthermore, the link of projects and programs to key performance indicators should reflect the country’s priorities and needs.

28. Effective country ownership can be demonstrated through the steadfast political commitment and cross-government buy-in to the objectives addressed under country platforms, ensuring continuity and strength in their implementation. This ownership may be further solidified through clear integration primarily with NDCs, NAPs, LT-LEDS, but also with sectoral and ecological plans, as relevant. The consistency between policy and investment enhances the attractiveness of sustainable projects to public and private investors. Additionally, maintaining a clear and stable institutional structure with the capacity to support the design and implementation of country platforms, for example through national financial institutions such as national development banks (NDBs) or multilateral development banks (MDBs), is essential for long-term success.

29. Linking country platforms to financing sources is critical, with a view to effectively attracting and creating a balance between concessional, public, and private finance and aligning with the specific policy priorities, goals and projects defined by each country. This multifaceted approach enhances the scale of finance and impact, accommodating both individual projects and broader investment programs within the country platform framework. Country platforms can enhance the use of public finance and leverage the comparative advantages of diverse financing sources, such as multilateral development banks (MDBs), which offer in addition to concessional, low- cost financing, analytics, policy advice, capacity building, investment plan preparation, project preparation, and the use of catalytic instruments for private finance towards country platforms.

30. Additionally, vertical climate and environmental funds play a role in supporting the development and implementation of country platforms. NDBs and public development banks (PDBs), with their alignment to country policies, local knowledge depth, and local currency finance capacity, can be pivotal in this endeavor. Early and consistent involvement of the private sector in country platform development and implementation is crucial to identifying investment opportunities and for defining enabling policy and regulatory requirements, as well as what needs to be financed or delivered by the public sector and how different investments are best sequenced.

31. Flexibility in the design of country platforms is essential to accommodate evolving circumstances. Local institutional structures may need to adapt across different stages of development and implementation, responding to changing country situations. Investment plans supported by country platforms can be dynamic, allowing adjustments based on detailed analysis, evolving contexts, and lessons learned throughout the implementation process. The role of local and external stakeholders will naturally evolve as local capacities strengthen. Continuous monitoring and tracking of country platform implementation will provide essential feedback, enabling adjustments to policies, investment plans, financing, and impacts according to the specific needs and priorities of each country. Buy-in and support for the development and implementation of country platforms will have a significant impact in scaling-up climate and development action and impact, which can contribute to the implementation of NDCs, NAPs and LT-LEDS.

32. The above voluntary recommendations are summarized in Annex A. They represent a basket of measures that can be used by G20 Members and other countries in line with their different national circumstances, approaches and pathways.

Part II – Resetting Finance: Frameworks consistent with the Paris Agreement ⁵

33. Bolder action is needed to enhance finance flows towards low GHG-emissions and climate-resilient development towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. While public finance continues to be imperative for tackling mitigation and adaptation, more needs to be done to help ensure that private finance plays a critical role in responding to climate investment needs and to overcome barriers in effectively enhancing investments for scaling up climate action, including by supporting transition pathways.

 34. G20 members should move towards whole-of-government, whole-of-society approaches for investments and finance consistent with the Paris Agreement, in light of different national circumstances and priorities. The way each member does so will depend on national contexts and take into account the mandates of individual institutions. This transformation also requires improving the way international institutions and governments enable and promote investments to respond to the urgency that the climate crisis requires and to the needs and priorities of countries.

Section I: Regulatory Frameworks

35. A resilient and well-functioning financial system plays a pivotal role in enabling finance for climate action by intermediating investors’ resources to impactful projects needed to achieve climate goals.

36. Climate-related risks and opportunities for projects, companies and investors should be integrated into financial decision-making, where relevant and material, to be accurately measured and managed. In addition, this information can enhance the availability of data and the ability of the financial system to track risks and opportunities. They can also act as a powerful transition lever towards climate-friendly enterprises and investments and to support the transition of the economic system, in line with national circumstances and by paying attention to unintended consequences of their implementation.

37. Central banks, financial regulators, supervisors and international coalitions and groupings, for example, have actively engaged in reflecting climate-related financial risks in their work. This includes the Financial Stability Board’s Roadmap for Addressing Climate-related Financial Risks, the standards developed by the International Sustainability Standards Boards (ISSB), the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s work on climate risks and the work of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).

38. Nevertheless, regulatory frameworks could continue to be reviewed and adjusted, as appropriate, by Standard Setting Bodies (SSBs) and their member jurisdictions and should aim to ensure that climate risks and opportunities are assessed, accounted for managed and communicated to inform more accurate investor assessment. This in turn can help to remove any identified obstacles to the flow of private finance towards sustainable investments by enhancing investor confidence. Utilizing a risk-based approach backed by data that accurately reflects risks and benefits of sustainable investments may assist enterprises in mitigating risks and realizing opportunities related to transitions.

39. A risk-based approach that accurately reflects material risks and opportunities requires closing data gaps and setting widely acceptable standards, as appropriate, taking into account interoperability, proportionality and country-specific contexts. Financial institutions are expected to continue to incorporate climate-related risks and opportunities into their risk assessment and management processes and strategies, including scenario analysis and stress testing for transition and physical risks exposures, in line with existing mandates. This is expected to enhance the resilience of the financial sector and support efforts to achieve climate goals. Any revisions of regulatory frameworks, including to promote favorable investment environments for climate action, should be thoughtfully sequenced and calibrated and implemented, taking into account the stability of the financial system and enabling investment environment in the country. Moreover, when duly substantiated, revisions must be first thoroughly discussed in the appropriate SSBs and relevant authorities and constituents, to maintain sufficient trust and accountability and an international level playing field, while ensuring that processes are inclusive and reflect various countries’ views. All those efforts contribute to modernize, simplify and bring greater legal certainty to such matters.

40. The establishment of international standards should be encouraged, with a view to enhancing the interoperability and comparability of sustainability disclosures standards and informing private investment, while maintaining flexibility. It is also important to address the challenges faced by SMEs and developing countries and to promote proportional, reliable, comparable and interoperable sustainability reporting disclosure standards, which are flexible and take into account country-specific circumstances.